International Science Index

118
10007674
Study of Landslide Behavior with Topographic Monitoring and Numerical Modeling
Abstract:

Landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) has been an old slip since 1969; it was reactivated after an intense rainfall period in 2008 where it presents a complex shape and affects broad areas. The schist of AEH is more or less altered; the alteration is facilitated by the fracturing of the rock in its upper part, the presence of flowing water as well as physical and chemical mechanisms of desegregation in joint of altered schist. The factors following these instabilities are mostly related to the geological formation, the hydro-climatic conditions and the topography of the region. The city of AEH is located on the top of a steep slope at 50 km from the city of TiziOuzou (Algeria). AEH’s topographic monitoring of unstable slope allows analyzing the structure and the different deformation mechanism and the gradual change in the geometry, the direction of change of slip. It also allows us to delimit the area affected by the movement. This work aims to study the behavior of AEH landslide with topographic monitoring and to validate the results with numerical modeling of the slip site, when the hydraulic factors are identified as the most important factors for the reactivation of this landslide. With the help of the numerical code PLAXIS 2D and PlaxFlow, the precipitations and the steady state flow are modeled. To identify the mechanism of deformation and to predict the spread of the AEH landslide numerically, we used the equivalent deviatory strain, and these results were visualized by MATLAB software.

Paper Detail
30
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117
10007488
Quantifying Freeway Capacity Reductions by Rainfall Intensities Based on Stochastic Nature of Flow Breakdown
Abstract:

This study quantifies a decrement in freeway capacity during rainfall. Traffic and rainfall data were gathered from Highway Agencies and Wunderground weather service. Three inter-urban freeway sections and its nearest weather stations were selected as experimental sites. Capacity analysis found reductions of maximum and mean pre-breakdown flow rates due to rainfall. The Kruskal-Wallis test also provided some evidence to suggest that the variance in the pre-breakdown flow rate is statistically insignificant. Potential application of this study lies in the operation of real time traffic management schemes such as Variable Speed Limits (VSL), Hard Shoulder Running (HSR), and Ramp Metering System (RMS), where speed or flow limits could be set based on a number of factors, including rainfall events and their intensities.

Paper Detail
42
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116
10007552
Spatial Variation of WRF Model Rainfall Prediction over Uganda
Abstract:
Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.
Paper Detail
47
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115
10007645
Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Basin of South India
Abstract:

This paper examines vulnerability assessment of water resources in a semi-arid basin using the 4-step approach. The vulnerability assessment framework is developed to study the water resources vulnerability which includes the creation of GIS-based vulnerability maps. These maps represent the spatial variability of the vulnerability index. This paper introduces the 4-step approach to assess vulnerability that incorporates a new set of indicators. The approach is demonstrated using a framework composed of a precipitation data for (1975–2010) period, temperature data for (1965–2010) period, hydrological model outputs and the water resources GIS data base. The vulnerability assessment is a function of three components such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The current water resources vulnerability is assessed using GIS based spatio-temporal information. Rainfall Coefficient of Variation, monsoon onset and end date, rainy days, seasonality indices, temperature are selected for the criterion ‘exposure’. Water yield, ground water recharge, evapotranspiration (ET) are selected for the criterion ‘sensitivity’. Type of irrigation and storage structures are selected for the criterion ‘Adaptive capacity’. These indicators were mapped and integrated in GIS environment using overlay analysis. The five sub-basins, namely Arjunanadhi, Kousiganadhi, Sindapalli-Uppodai and Vallampatti Odai, fall under medium vulnerability profile, which indicates that the basin is under moderate stress of water resources. The paper also explores prioritization of sub-basinwise adaptation strategies to climate change based on the vulnerability indices.

Paper Detail
40
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114
10007183
A Review on Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture in Southeast Nigeria
Abstract:

Climate change has both negative and positive effects in agricultural production. For agriculture to be sustainable in adverse climate change condition, some natural measures are needed. The issue is to produce more food with available natural resources and reduce the contribution of agriculture to climate change. The study reviewed climate change and sustainable agriculture in southeast Nigeria. Data from the study were from secondary sources. Ten scientific papers were consulted and data for the review were collected from three. The objectives of the paper were as follows: to review the effect of climate change on one major arable crop in southeast Nigeria (yam; Dioscorea rotundata); evident of climate change impact and methods for sustainable agricultural production in adverse weather condition. Some climatic parameter as sunshine, relative humidity and rainfall have negative relationship with yam production and significant at 10% probability. Crop production was predicted to decline by 25% per hectare by 2060 while livestock production has increased the incidence of diseases and pathogens as the major effect to agriculture. Methods for sustainable agriculture and damage of natural resources by climate change were highlighted. Agriculture needs to be transformed as climate changes to enable the sector to be sustainable. There should be a policy in place to facilitate the integration of sustainability in Nigeria agriculture.

Paper Detail
119
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113
10007351
Coastal Vulnerability Index and Its Projection for Odisha Coast, East Coast of India
Abstract:

Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Paper Detail
78
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112
10007164
Hydrological Characterization of a Watershed for Streamflow Prediction
Abstract:

In this paper, we extend the versatility and usefulness of GIS as a methodology for any river basin hydrologic characteristics analysis (HCA). The Gurara River basin located in North-Central Nigeria is presented in this study. It is an on-going research using spatial Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Arc-Hydro tools to take inventory of the basin characteristics in order to predict water abstraction quantification on streamflow regime. One of the main concerns of hydrological modelling is the quantification of runoff from rainstorm events. In practice, the soil conservation service curve (SCS) method and the Conventional procedure called rational technique are still generally used these traditional hydrological lumped models convert statistical properties of rainfall in river basin to observed runoff and hydrograph. However, the models give little or no information about spatially dispersed information on rainfall and basin physical characteristics. Therefore, this paper synthesizes morphometric parameters in generating runoff. The expected results of the basin characteristics such as size, area, shape, slope of the watershed and stream distribution network analysis could be useful in estimating streamflow discharge. Water resources managers and irrigation farmers could utilize the tool for determining net return from available scarce water resources, where past data records are sparse for the aspect of land and climate.

Paper Detail
94
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111
10006828
Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological System of the Harvey River Catchment
Abstract:

Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.

Paper Detail
188
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110
10006615
Application of Unstructured Mesh Modeling in Evolving SGE of an Airport at the Confluence of Multiple Rivers in a Macro Tidal Region
Abstract:

Among the various developing countries in the world like China, Malaysia, Korea etc., India is also developing its infrastructures in the form of Road/Rail/Airports and Waterborne facilities at an exponential rate. Mumbai, the financial epicenter of India is overcrowded and to relieve the pressure of congestion, Navi Mumbai suburb is being developed on the east bank of Thane creek near Mumbai. The government due to limited space at existing Mumbai Airports (domestic and international) to cater for the future demand of airborne traffic, proposes to build a new international airport near Panvel at Navi Mumbai. Considering the precedence of extreme rainfall on 26th July 2005 and nearby townships being in a low-lying area, wherein new airport is proposed, it is inevitable to study this complex confluence area from a hydrodynamic consideration under both tidal and extreme events (predicted discharge hydrographs), to avoid inundation of the surrounding due to the proposed airport reclamation (1160 hectares) and to determine the safe grade elevation (SGE). The model studies conducted using the application of unstructured mesh to simulate the Panvel estuarine area (93 km2), calibration, validation of a model for hydraulic field measurements and determine the maxima water levels around the airport for various extreme hydrodynamic events, namely the simultaneous occurrence of highest tide from the Arabian Sea and peak flood discharges (Probable Maximum Precipitation and 26th July 2005) from five rivers, the Gadhi, Kalundri, Taloja, Kasadi and Ulwe, meeting at the proposed airport area revealed that: (a) The Ulwe River flowing beneath the proposed airport needs to be diverted. The 120m wide proposed Ulwe diversion channel having a wider base width of 200 m at SH-54 Bridge on the Ulwe River along with the removal of the existing bund in Moha Creek is inevitable to keep the SGE of the airport to a minimum. (b) The clear waterway of 80 m at SH-54 Bridge (Ulwe River) and 120 m at Amra Marg Bridge near Moha Creek is also essential for the Ulwe diversion and (c) The river bank protection works on the right bank of Gadhi River between the NH-4B and SH-54 bridges as well as upstream of the Ulwe River diversion channel are essential to avoid inundation of low lying areas. The maxima water levels predicted around the airport keeps SGE to a minimum of 11m with respect to Chart datum of Ulwe Bundar and thus development is not only technologically-economically feasible but also sustainable. The unstructured mesh modeling is a promising tool to simulate complex extreme hydrodynamic events and provides a reliable solution to evolve optimal SGE of airport.

Paper Detail
131
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109
10006628
Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change: A Study of the Himalayan Region State
Abstract:
Climate variability and changes are the emerging challenges for Indian agriculture with the growing population to ensure national food security. A study was conducted to assess the Climatic Change effects in medium to low altitude areas of the Himalayan region causing changes in land use and cereal crop productivity with the various climatic parameters. The rainfall and temperature changes from 1951 to 2013 were studied at four locations of varying altitudes, namely Hardwar, Rudra Prayag, Uttar Kashi and Tehri Garwal. It was observed that there is noticeable increment in temperature on all the four locations. It was surprisingly observed that the mean rainfall intensity of 30 minutes duration has increased at the rate of 0.1 mm/hours since 2000. The study shows that the combined effect of increasing temperature, rainfall, runoff and urbanization at the mid-Himalayan region is causing an increase in various climatic disasters and changes in agriculture patterns. A noticeable change in cropping patterns, crop productivity and land use change was observed. Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are necessary to ensure that sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture. Appropriate information is necessary for farmers, as well as planners and decision makers for developing, disseminating and adopting climate-smart technologies.
Paper Detail
373
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108
10006388
Precipitation Intensity: Duration Based Threshold Analysis for Initiation of Landslides in Upper Alaknanda Valley
Abstract:

The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.

Paper Detail
212
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107
10005436
Determination of Unsaturated Soil Permeability Based on Geometric Factor Development of Constant Discharge Model
Abstract:
After Yogyakarta earthquake in 2006, the main problem that occurred in the first yard of Prambanan Temple is ponding area that occurred after rainfall. Soil characterization needs to be determined by conducting several processes, especially permeability coefficient (k) in both saturated and unsaturated conditions to solve this problem. More accurate and efficient field testing procedure is required to obtain permeability data that present the field condition. One of the field permeability test equipment is Constant Discharge procedure to determine the permeability coefficient. Necessary adjustments of the Constant Discharge procedure are needed to be determined especially the value of geometric factor (F) to improve the corresponding value of permeability coefficient. The value of k will be correlated with the value of volumetric water content (θ) of an unsaturated condition until saturated condition. The principle procedure of Constant Discharge model provides a constant flow in permeameter tube that flows into the ground until the water level in the tube becomes constant. Constant water level in the tube is highly dependent on the tube dimension. Every tube dimension has a shape factor called the geometric factor that affects the result of the test. Geometric factor value is defined as the characteristic of shape and radius of the tube. This research has modified the geometric factor parameters by using empty material tube method so that the geometric factor will change. Saturation level is monitored by using soil moisture sensor. The field test results were compared with the results of laboratory tests to validate the results of the test. Field and laboratory test results of empty tube material method have an average difference of 3.33 x 10-4 cm/sec. The test results showed that modified geometric factor provides more accurate data. The improved methods of constant discharge procedure provide more relevant results.
Paper Detail
507
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106
10004713
Analysis of Trend and Variability of Rainfall in the Mid-Mahanadi River Basin of Eastern India
Abstract:

The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km2 and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km2 and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Paper Detail
555
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105
10004766
Effects of Different Meteorological Variables on Reference Evapotranspiration Modeling: Application of Principal Component Analysis
Abstract:

The correct estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETₒ) is required for effective irrigation water resources planning and management. However, there are some variables that must be considered while estimating and modeling ETₒ. This study therefore determines the multivariate analysis of correlated variables involved in the estimation and modeling of ETₒ at Vaalharts irrigation scheme (VIS) in South Africa using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique. Weather and meteorological data between 1994 and 2014 were obtained both from South African Weather Service (SAWS) and Agricultural Research Council (ARC) in South Africa for this study. Average monthly data of minimum and maximum temperature (°C), rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), and wind speed (m/s) were the inputs to the PCA-based model, while ETₒ is the output. PCA technique was adopted to extract the most important information from the dataset and also to analyze the relationship between the five variables and ETₒ. This is to determine the most significant variables affecting ETₒ estimation at VIS. From the model performances, two principal components with a variance of 82.7% were retained after the eigenvector extraction. The results of the two principal components were compared and the model output shows that minimum temperature, maximum temperature and windspeed are the most important variables in ETₒ estimation and modeling at VIS. In order words, ETₒ increases with temperature and windspeed. Other variables such as rainfall and relative humidity are less important and cannot be used to provide enough information about ETₒ estimation at VIS. The outcome of this study has helped to reduce input variable dimensionality from five to the three most significant variables in ETₒ modelling at VIS, South Africa.

Paper Detail
330
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104
10004769
Changes in Fish and Shellfish in Thondamanaru Lagoon, Jaffna, Sri Lanka
Abstract:

Current study was conducted for one year from June 2014 to May 2015, with an objective of identification of fish and shellfish diversity in the Thondamanaru lagoon ecosystem. In this study, 11 species were identified from Thondamanaru lagoon, Jaffna, Sri Lanka. There are four fishes, Chanos chanos, Hemirhamphus sp., Nematalosa sp. and Mugil cephalus and seven shell fishes, Penaeus indicus, Penaeus monodon, Penaeus latisulcatus, Penaeus semisulcatus, Metapenaeus monoceros, Portunus pelagicus and Scylla serrata. Species composition of Mugil cephalus, Penaeus indicus and Metapenaeus monoceros was high during rainy seasons. However, lagoon is being subjected to adverse environmental conditions that threaten its fish and shellfish biodiversity due to lack of saline water availability and changes in rainfall pattern.

Paper Detail
578
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103
10004224
Regionalization of IDF Curves with L-Moments for Storm Events
Abstract:

The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Paper Detail
660
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102
10004225
Daily Probability Model of Storm Events in Peninsular Malaysia
Abstract:

Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Paper Detail
624
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101
10003411
Development of Map of Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index: GBFFPI Map of QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue Provinces
Authors:
Abstract:
Flash flood is occurred in short time rainfall interval: from 1 hour to 12 hours in small and medium basins. Flash floods typically have two characteristics: large water flow and big flow velocity. Flash flood is occurred at hill valley site (strip of lowland of terrain) in a catchment with large enough distribution area, steep basin slope, and heavy rainfall. The risk of flash floods is determined through Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index (GBFFPI). Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) is determined through terrain slope flash flood index, soil erosion flash flood index, land cover flash floods index, land use flash flood index, rainfall flash flood index. Determining GBFFPI, each cell in a map can be considered as outlet of a water accumulation basin. GBFFPI of the cell is determined as basin average value of FFPI of the corresponding water accumulation basin. Based on GIS, a tool is developed to compute GBFFPI using ArcObjects SDK for .NET. The maps of GBFFPI are built in two types: GBFFPI including rainfall flash flood index (real time flash flood warning) or GBFFPI excluding rainfall flash flood index. GBFFPI Tool can be used to determine a high flash flood potential site in a large region as quick as possible. The GBFFPI is improved from conventional FFPI. The advantage of GBFFPI is that GBFFPI is taking into account the basin response (interaction of cells) and determines more true flash flood site (strip of lowland of terrain) while conventional FFPI is taking into account single cell and does not consider the interaction between cells. The GBFFPI Map of QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue is built and exported to Google Earth. The obtained map proves scientific basis of GBFFPI.
Paper Detail
1107
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100
10003120
Sustainable Use of Laura Lens during Drought
Abstract:
Laura Island, which is located about 50 km away from downtown, is a source of water supply in Majuro atoll, which is the capital of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Low and flat Majuro atoll has neither river nor lake. It is very important for Majuro atoll to ensure the conservation of its water resources. However, upconing, which is the process of partial rising of the freshwater-saltwater boundary near the water-supply well, was caused by the excess pumping from it during the severe drought in 1998. Upconing will make the water usage of the freshwater lens difficult. Thus, appropriate water usage is required to prevent up coning in the freshwater lens because there is no other water source during drought. Numerical simulation of water usage applying SEAWAT model was conducted at the central part of Laura Island, including the water supply well, which was affected by upconing. The freshwater lens was created as a result of infiltration of consistent average rainfall. The lens shape was almost the same as the one in 1985. 0 of monthly rainfall and variable daily pump discharge were used to calculate the sustainable pump discharge from the water supply well. Consequently, the total amount of pump discharge was increased as the daily pump discharge was increased, indicating that it needs more time to recover from upconing. Thus, a pump standard to reduce the pump intensity is being proposed, which is based on numerical simulation concerning the occurrence of the up-coning phenomenon in Laura Island during the drought.
Paper Detail
1029
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99
10002720
The Automated Soil Erosion Monitoring System (ASEMS)
Abstract:
The advancements in technology allow the development of a new system that can continuously measure surface soil erosion. Continuous soil erosion measurements are required in order to comprehend the erosional processes and propose effective and efficient conservation measures to mitigate surface erosion. Mitigating soil erosion, especially in Mediterranean countries such as Greece, is essential in order to maintain environmental and agricultural sustainability. In this paper, we present the Automated Soil Erosion Monitoring System (ASEMS) that measures surface soil erosion along with other factors that impact erosional process. Specifically, this system measures ground level changes (surface soil erosion), rainfall, air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture. Another important innovation is that the data will be collected by remote communication. In addition, stakeholder’s awareness is a key factor to help reduce any environmental problem. The different dissemination activities that were utilized are described. The overall outcomes were the development of a new innovative system that can measure erosion very accurately. These data from the system help study the process of erosion and find the best possible methods to reduce erosion. The dissemination activities enhance the stakeholders and public's awareness on surface soil erosion problems and will lead to the adoption of more effective soil erosion conservation practices in Greece.
Paper Detail
1034
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98
10002415
A New Intelligent, Dynamic and Real Time Management System of Sewerage
Abstract:
The current tools for real time management of sewer systems are based on two software tools: the software of weather forecast and the software of hydraulic simulation. The use of the first ones is an important cause of imprecision and uncertainty, the use of the second requires temporal important steps of decision because of their need in times of calculation. This way of proceeding fact that the obtained results are generally different from those waited. The major idea of this project is to change the basic paradigm by approaching the problem by the "automatic" face rather than by that "hydrology". The objective is to make possible the realization of a large number of simulations at very short times (a few seconds) allowing to take place weather forecasts by using directly the real time meditative pluviometric data. The aim is to reach a system where the decision-making is realized from reliable data and where the correction of the error is permanent. A first model of control laws was realized and tested with different return-period rainfalls. The gains obtained in rejecting volume vary from 19 to 100 %. The development of a new algorithm was then used to optimize calculation time and thus to overcome the subsequent combinatorial problem in our first approach. Finally, this new algorithm was tested with 16- year-rainfall series. The obtained gains are 40 % of total volume rejected to the natural environment and of 65 % in the number of discharges.
Paper Detail
714
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97
10003223
Predicting the Adsorptive Capacities of Biosolid as a Barrier in Soil to Remove Industrial Contaminants
Abstract:
The major environmental risk of soil pollution is the contamination of groundwater by infiltration of organic and inorganic pollutants which can cause a serious menace. To prevent this risk and to protect the groundwater, we proceeded in this study to test the reliability of a biosolid as barrier to prevent the migration of very dangerous pollutants as ‘Cadmium’ through the different soil layers. In this study, we tried to highlight the effect of several parameters such as: turbidity (different cycle of Hydration/Dehydration), rainfall, effect of initial Cd(II) concentration and the type of soil. These parameters allow us to find the most effective manner to integrate this barrier in the soil. From the results obtained, we found a significant effect of the barrier. Indeed, the recorded passing quantities are lowest for the highest rainfall; we noted also that the barrier has a better affinity towards higher concentrations; the most retained amounts of cadmium has been in the top layer of the two types of soil tested, while the lowest amounts of cadmium are recorded in the bottom layers of soils.
Paper Detail
659
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96
10002683
Contributions of Natural and Human Activities to Urban Surface Runoff with Different Hydrological Scenarios (Orléans, France)
Abstract:
This study aims at improving the urban hydrological cycle of the Orléans agglomeration (France) and understanding the relationship between physical and chemical parameters of urban surface runoff and the hydrological conditions. In particular water quality parameters such as pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, major dissolved cations and anions, and chemical and biological oxygen demands were monitored for three types of urban water discharges (wastewater treatment plant output (WWTP), storm overflow and stormwater outfall) under two hydrologic scenarios (dry and wet weather). The first results were obtained over a period of five months. Each investigated (Ormes, l’Egoutier and La Corne) outfall represents an urban runoff source that receives water from runoff roads, gutters, the irrigation of gardens and other sources of flow over the Earth’s surface that drains in its catchments and carries it to the Loire River. In wet weather conditions there is rain water runoff and an additional input from the roof gutters that have entered the stormwater system during rainfall. For the comparison the results La Chilesse is a storm overflow that was selected in our study as a potential source of waste water which is located before the (WWTP). The comparison of the physical-chemical parameters (total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), concentration of major cations and anions) together with the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD) helped to characterize sources of runoff waters in the different watersheds. It also helped to highlight the infiltration of wastewater in some stormwater systems that reject directly in the Loire River. The values of the conductivity measured in the outflow of Ormes were always higher than those measured in the other two outlets. The results showed a temporal variation for the Ormes outfall of conductivity from 1465 μS cm-1 in the dry weather flow to 650 μS cm-1 in the wet weather flow and also a spatial variation in the wet weather flow from 650 μS cm-1 in the Ormes outfall to 281 μS cm-1 in L’Egouttier outfall. The ultimate BOD (BOD28) showed a significant decrease in La Corne outfall from 181 mg L-1 in the wet weather flow to 95 mg L-1 in the dry weather flow because of the nutrient load that was transported by the runoff.
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2455
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10002769
Spatio-Temporal Data Mining with Association Rules for Lake Van
Abstract:
People, throughout the history, have made estimates and inferences about the future by using their past experiences. Developing information technologies and the improvements in the database management systems make it possible to extract useful information from knowledge in hand for the strategic decisions. Therefore, different methods have been developed. Data mining by association rules learning is one of such methods. Apriori algorithm, one of the well-known association rules learning algorithms, is not commonly used in spatio-temporal data sets. However, it is possible to embed time and space features into the data sets and make Apriori algorithm a suitable data mining technique for learning spatiotemporal association rules. Lake Van, the largest lake of Turkey, is a closed basin. This feature causes the volume of the lake to increase or decrease as a result of change in water amount it holds. In this study, evaporation, humidity, lake altitude, amount of rainfall and temperature parameters recorded in Lake Van region throughout the years are used by the Apriori algorithm and a spatio-temporal data mining application is developed to identify overflows and newlyformed soil regions (underflows) occurring in the coastal parts of Lake Van. Identifying possible reasons of overflows and underflows may be used to alert the experts to take precautions and make the necessary investments.
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741
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10001094
Using High Performance Computing for Online Flood Monitoring and Prediction
Abstract:

The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of a high performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice River catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

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1475
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10001120
Spatial-Temporal Clustering Characteristics of Dengue in the Northern Region of Sri Lanka, 2010-2013
Abstract:

Dengue outbreaks are affected by biological, ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors that vary over time and space. These factors have been examined separately and still require systematic clarification. The present study aimed to investigate the spatial-temporal clustering relationships between these factors and dengue outbreaks in the northern region of Sri Lanka. Remote sensing (RS) data gathered from a plurality of satellites were used to develop an index comprising rainfall, humidity and temperature data. RS data gathered by ALOS/AVNIR-2 were used to detect urbanization, and a digital land cover map was used to extract land cover information. Other data on relevant factors and dengue outbreaks were collected through institutions and extant databases. The analyzed RS data and databases were integrated into geographic information systems, enabling temporal analysis, spatial statistical analysis and space-time clustering analysis. Our present results showed that increases in the number of the combination of ecological factor and socio-economic and demographic factors with above the average or the presence contribute to significantly high rates of space-time dengue clusters.

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1514
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10001171
Failure to React Positively to Flood Early Warning Systems: Lessons Learned by Flood Victims from Flash Flood Disasters: The Malaysia Experience
Abstract:

This paper describes the issues relating to the role of the flash flood early warning system provided by the Malaysian Government to the communities in Malaysia, specifically during the flash flood disaster in the Cameron Highlands, Malaysia. Normally, flash flood disasters can occur as a result of heavy rainfall in an area, and that water may possibly cause flooding via streams or narrow channels. The focus of this study is the flash flood disaster which occurred on 23 October 2013 in the Cameron Highlands, and as a result the Sungai Bertam overflowed after the release of water from the Sultan Abu Bakar Dam. This release of water from the dam caused flash flooding which led to damage to properties and also the death of residents and livestock in the area. Therefore, the effort of this study is to identify the perceptions of the flash flood victims on the role of the flash flood early warning system. For the purposes of this study, data were gathered through face-to-face interviews from those flood victims who were willing to participate in this study. This approach helped the researcher to glean in-depth information about their feelings and perceptions of the role of the flash flood early warning system offered by the government. The data were analysed descriptively and the findings show that the respondents of 22 flood victims believe strongly that the flash flood early warning system was confusing and dysfunctional, and communities had failed to response positively to it. Therefore, most of the communities were not well prepared for the releasing of water from the dam which caused property damage, and 3 people were killed in the Cameron Highland flash flood disaster.

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1599
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10001346
Automatic Flood Prediction Using Rainfall Runoff Model in Moravian-Silesian Region
Abstract:
Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.
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10000767
Moisture Variations in Unbound Layers in an Instrumented Pavement Section
Abstract:

This study presents the moisture variations of unbound layers from April 2012 to January 2014 in the Interstate 40 (I-40) pavement section in New Mexico. Three moisture probes were installed at different layers inside the pavement which measure the continuous moisture variations of the unbound layers. Data show that the moisture contents of unbound layers are typically constant throughout the day and month unless there is rainfall. Moisture contents of all unbound layers change with rainfall. Change in ground water table may affect the moisture content of unbound layers which has not been investigated in this study. In addition, the Level 3 predictions of moisture contents using the Pavement Mechanistic- Empirical (ME) Design software were compared and found quite reasonable. However, results presented in the current study may not be applicable for pavement in other regions.

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1280
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10001084
New Hybrid Method to Model Extreme Rainfalls
Abstract:

Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose, in the present paper, a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data recorded in Oujda (Morocco). The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u. In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.

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1341
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