11

10008927

Optimal Mitigation of Slopes by Probabilistic Methods

A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

10

10008162

Evaluation of the Mechanical Behavior of a Retaining Wall Structure on a Weathered Soil through Probabilistic Methods

Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.

9

10005933

Application Reliability Method for Concrete Dams

Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

8

10004759

Mecano-Reliability Approach Applied to a Water Storage Tank Placed on Ground

Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

7

10003698

Analytical Slope Stability Analysis Based on the Statistical Characterization of Soil Shear Strength

Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

6

9998435

Simple Procedure for Probability Calculation of Tensile Crack Occurring in Rigid Pavement – Case Study

Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

5

17331

Reliability Analysis of Underground Pipelines Using Subset Simulation

An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

4

16779

Determination of Sensitive Transmission Lines Due to the Effect of Protection System Hidden Failure in a Critical System Cascading Collapse

Protection system hidden failures have been identified as one of the main causes of system cascading collapse resulting to power system instability. In this paper, a systematic approach is presented in order to identify the probability of a system cascading collapse by taking into consideration the effect of protection system hidden failure. This includes the accurate calculation of the probability of hidden failure as it will provide significant impinge on the findings of the probability of system cascading collapse. The probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to identify the initial tripping of sensitive transmission lines which will contribute to a critical system cascading collapse. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is important to decide on the accurate value of the hidden failure probability as it will affect the probability of a system cascading collapse.

3

9769

Calculation of the Ceramics Weibull Parameters

The paper deals with calculation of the parameters of
ceramic material from a set of destruction tests of ceramic heads of
total hip joint endoprosthesis. The standard way of calculation of the
material parameters consists in carrying out a set of 3 or 4 point
bending tests of specimens cut out from parts of the ceramic material
to be analysed. In case of ceramic heads, it is not possible to cut out
specimens of required dimensions because the heads are too small (if
the cut out specimens were smaller than the normalised ones, the
material parameters derived from them would exhibit higher strength
values than those which the given ceramic material really has). On
that score, a special testing jig was made, in which 40 heads were
destructed. From the measured values of circumferential strains of the
head-s external spherical surface under destruction, the state of stress
in the head under destruction was established using the final elements
method (FEM). From the values obtained, the sought for parameters
of the ceramic material were calculated using Weibull-s weakest-link
theory.

2

8226

SFCL Location Selection Considering Reliability Indices

The fault current levels through the electric devices
have a significant impact on failure probability. New fault current
results in exceeding the rated capacity of circuit breaker and switching
equipments and changes operation characteristic of overcurrent relay.
In order to solve these problems, SFCL (Superconducting Fault
Current Limiter) has rising as one of new alternatives so as to improve
these problems. A fault current reduction differs depending on
installed location. Therefore, a location of SFCL is very important.
Also, SFCL decreases the fault current, and it prevents surrounding
protective devices to be exposed to fault current, it then will bring a
change of reliability. In this paper, we propose method which
determines the optimal location when SFCL is installed in power
system. In addition, the reliability about the power system which
SFCL was installed is evaluated. The efficiency and effectiveness of
this method are also shown by numerical examples and the reliability
indices are evaluated in this study at each load points. These results
show a reliability change of a system when SFCL was installed.

1

12342

A Bayesian Network Reliability Modeling for FlexRay Systems

The increasing importance of FlexRay systems in
automotive domain inspires unceasingly relative researches. One
primary issue among researches is to verify the reliability of FlexRay
systems either from protocol aspect or from system design aspect.
However, research rarely discusses the effect of network topology on
the system reliability. In this paper, we will illustrate how to model
the reliability of FlexRay systems with various network topologies by
a well-known probabilistic reasoning technology, Bayesian Network.
In this illustration, we especially investigate the effectiveness of error
containment built in star topology and fault-tolerant midpoint
synchronization algorithm adopted in FlexRay communication
protocol. Through a FlexRay steer-by-wire case study, the influence
of different topologies on the failure probability of the FlexRay steerby-
wire system is demonstrated. The notable value of this research is
to show that the Bayesian Network inference is a powerful and
feasible method for the reliability assessment of FlexRay systems.